Russia faces potential ruble devaluation, with forecasts indicating a weakening currency. Experts predict the dollar could surpass 100 rubles by winter and reach 130 in the long term. Devaluation weakens the national currency against stronger currencies like the dollar and euro, impacting imports and savings.

Devaluation’s primary impact is making imported goods more expensive. This is because importers need more rubles to buy the same amount of foreign currency to pay suppliers, and these increased costs are passed on to consumers. This affects everything from medicine to car parts and smartphones. Even domestic products that rely on imported components become more expensive.

Savings held in rubles lose value during devaluation. The real value of ruble savings decreases in terms of what they can buy or how they translate into other currencies. This is particularly concerning for those saving for major purchases like education, housing, or retirement.

Foreign currency debts become harder to manage. Those with loans or mortgages in foreign currencies face higher monthly payments in rubles as the bank needs more rubles to purchase the necessary foreign currency for repayment.

Devaluation fuels inflation. Expensive imports and components drive up prices across the board. Local manufacturers may also raise prices, taking advantage of the situation, while consumers may stockpile goods in anticipation of further price increases, exacerbating shortages and inflation.

Uncertainty discourages investment. A weak and unpredictable currency makes investors hesitant to invest in long-term projects within the country, hindering economic development and job creation.

Several factors are contributing to the pressure on the ruble. Low projected oil prices limit foreign exchange earnings, while high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty add to the pressure. Even future normalization of the Central Bank’s key rate could weaken the ruble.

Authorities may allow the ruble to weaken to a certain extent to stabilize the budget and support exporters. However, the risk remains that external shocks, such as a sharp drop in oil prices or severe sanctions, could lead to an uncontrolled collapse.