VTB President Andrei Kostin has announced that he will no longer make predictions about the Bank of Russia’s key rate and has strongly advised his subordinates against doing so. He believes such forecasts are ultimately meaningless.

Speaking on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Kostin stated that disputes on the topic amount to “guesswork,” as the final decision rests with the Central Bank’s board of directors, independent of bankers’ opinions.

While acknowledging the futility of predictions, Kostin highlighted a steady trend towards lower inflation in the Russian economy. He referenced President Vladimir Putin’s statement at the forum regarding a possible inflation rate of 7% by the end of 2025, suggesting this could provide a foundation for lowering the key rate.

The Bank of Russia held the key rate steady at 16% in its most recent decision on April 25, marking the fourth consecutive time it has done so. According to Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina, neither raising nor lowering the rate was considered at the board meeting. The regulator has observed signs of weakening inflationary pressure.

Despite these positive signs, the Central Bank remains cautious, believing it is premature to declare these trends stable. In May, Kostin had previously offered a bet on the Bank of Russia’s decision regarding a rate cut, following a prediction from VTB First Deputy Chairman Dmitry Pyanov that the rate would remain unchanged. At that time, Kostin noted early signs of slowing growth and decreasing inflationary pressure within the economy.