Starting in 2026, Russian governors will be evaluated on their regions’ total fertility rates, with 13 billion rubles allocated annually to incentivize success in boosting birth rates. This initiative aims to reverse the country’s long-standing demographic crisis by making childbirth a key performance indicator for regional leaders. The move signals a significant shift in demographic policy, prioritizing it at the highest level of regional governance.

The new system aims to compel governors to prioritize increasing birth rates by using their authority to improve local conditions. This includes enhancing infrastructure like kindergartens and clinics, and supporting families through targeted solutions. Financial incentives are intended to support these efforts.

However, experts express skepticism about governors’ ability to significantly influence birth rates. They warn of potential manipulation of statistics and a focus on short-term gains over genuine improvements in quality of life. Some suggest regional heads might try to manipulate the population numbers, overestimating it to meet goals. The fairness of applying uniform targets to regions with varying demographics is also questioned.

Experts argue that fertility decisions are deeply personal and depend on factors largely beyond a governor’s control, such as income, housing availability, career opportunities for women, and socio-cultural attitudes. Some believe efforts to increase the birth rate are mainly for public relations and will not bring any real effect. They also highlighted that measures like banning abortions could lead to negative consequences like increased maternal mortality and illegal procedures.