The Russian ruble has become the fastest-growing currency against the US dollar since the beginning of the year, reversing a trend that saw the dollar surge to over 110 rubles in December 2024. This appreciation has had varied effects on different sectors of the Russian economy.

The decline in the dollar’s value began in January and has continued steadily, with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation now estimating the currency at 78–80 rubles per dollar. Experts attribute this trend to a combination of factors, including geopolitical developments and domestic economic policies.

The electronics market has been particularly responsive to the ruble’s strengthening. Foreign suppliers and stores reduced prices in February, with further decreases observed since then. The owner of Technomax, Maxim Bagaev, noted that the depreciation of goods is outpacing the fall in the exchange rate, influenced by low consumer interest in large purchases and high-interest rates on deposits. M.Video – Eldorado reported a 20% decrease in the cost of iPhone 16 models and other lines since the beginning of the year, citing the stronger ruble as the primary reason.

The car market has been less affected by the currency fluctuations. According to Maxim Alekhin from Medved Holding Group, cars typically increase in price year-on-year, but this trend has been tempered this year. While the exchange rate impacts cars brought to Russia “on order” or through parallel imports, vehicles currently in dealerships were purchased in advance at different rates. The dollar’s influence on car prices is estimated at up to 40%, with taxes, domestic logistics, and dealer markups making up the remainder.

The exchange rate also affects the cost of food products. Komandor representative Maria Sikora explained that while the currency plays a significant role, the initial price of goods, often fixed in dollars or yuan, is crucial. The strengthening ruble makes purchases cheaper, which is reflected on store shelves, as seen with apricots and mangoes.

Economist Evgeny Kogan identified several reasons for the ruble’s strengthening, including a significant drop in Russian imports, a high-interest rate, falling oil prices, and the purchase of Russian assets by Western speculators. Analyst Natalia Pyryeva noted that geopolitical detente helps attract investors to Russian banks. However, a low dollar can negatively impact the country’s budget by decreasing oil and gas revenues.