Russian motorists should prepare for a potential increase in gasoline and diesel prices by the end of the year, potentially rising by approximately 10% based on current inflation rates. This increase comes despite a period of relatively stable prices since March.

The unspoken agreement between oil refinery owners and regulators allows for price increases up to the officially recorded inflation rate set by the Central Bank. With the Central Bank currently reporting inflation at 10.2%, this opens the door for a significant price adjustment.

While gasoline prices in Russia are formally unregulated and supposedly determined by exchange trading, a “gentleman’s agreement” has historically limited price increases to the official inflation rate. This spring pause was most likely caused by all this inflationary uncertainty. Then the horizon of opportunities opens up.

Recent data indicates a decrease in gasoline and diesel production in 2024, coupled with a rise in exports, particularly to China. This combination of factors suggests that there may be less supply on the domestic market, potentially leading to price increases.

Although officials anticipate a slowdown in overall price growth due to seasonal factors, rising utility tariffs from July may counteract this effect. The ultimate price increase will depend on the inflation rate announced by Rosstat in December.

Despite the potential for significant price increases, the actual impact on individual motorists may be less severe than anticipated. Filling a 50-liter tank with AI-92 gasoline could cost around 280 rubles more, AI-95 around 320 rubles, and diesel fuel approximately 360 rubles more.