Motorists in Russia should brace for a potential rise in gasoline prices by the end of the year, potentially increasing by the level of inflation. Despite a recent period of relatively stable fuel costs, economic factors and industry practices suggest an increase is likely.

Gasoline prices in Russia are not directly controlled by the state, but are influenced by exchange trading and a “gentleman’s agreement” between major oil companies and regulators. This agreement historically limits annual price increases to the official inflation rate recorded by the Central Bank.

While gasoline prices have remained relatively stable since March, this is likely due to previous economic forecasts. The Central Bank currently estimates annual inflation at 10.2%. This figure is a key factor determining the extent to which gas station owners can morally raise prices.

Fuel production figures are not publicly available. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak indicated a decrease in gasoline and diesel production in 2024. However, officials suggest a “slight increase” in fuel production is expected this year.

Exports of diesel fuel from Russia have significantly increased, particularly to China.

Calculations suggest that a full increase in gasoline prices, aligned with the current inflation rate, would lead to an increase of around 280 rubles for a 50-liter fill-up of AI-92, 320 rubles for AI-95, and 360 rubles for diesel fuel. This increase would have a limited impact on the expenses of an ordinary motorist.

It remains uncertain whether oil companies will fully utilize the opportunity to raise prices to the maximum allowed level. However, increased spending on oil depot and plant repairs provides a justification for price increases.