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Definitive Confirmation of Peak of Solar Cycle 25 and Projected Decline

The Solar Astronomy Laboratory of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences announced on June 11 that Solar Cycle 25 has definitively reached its peak. The current solar activity is now in a pronounced decline phase, which is anticipated to last until approximately 2030.

A key indicator, the sunspot number index, has shown a sharp decrease, dropping from 140 units in April to 79 units in May. This represents the lowest level since August 2022, effectively ruling out any potential return to peak levels of activity.

The absolute peak of Solar Cycle 25 occurred in August 2024, reaching a maximum index of 216. This marks the highest level of solar activity in 20 years.

Looking ahead, astronomers predict that the next peak of solar activity will occur between 2034 and 2036, potentially exceeding the strength of the current cycle.

Despite the decline phase, there remains a risk of significant solar flares and magnetic storms, particularly in the initial two to three years following the peak. The 23rd solar cycle serves as a notable example. In 2003, two years after its peak in 2001, a series of substantial flares and magnetic storms were recorded.

For the current cycle, the potential for such events will persist until the end of 2027.