Motorists in Russia should prepare for potential gasoline and diesel fuel price increases by the end of the year, as oil refineries may take advantage of opportunities to raise prices, despite prices remaining relatively stable since March. The potential price hikes come amid unspoken agreements between oil companies and officials, coupled with rising inflation and increased spending on refinery repairs.

While gasoline prices in Russia are not formally state-regulated, a “gentleman’s agreement” exists between vertically integrated oil companies (VINKs) and regulatory officials, limiting annual retail price increases to the official inflation rate recorded by the Central Bank. The current stagnation in gasoline prices is partially attributed to an earlier, lower inflation forecast that has since been revised upwards.

The Central Bank’s current inflation rate stands at 10.2%, a figure that gas station owners will likely consider when adjusting prices. All Russian VINKs have recently reported significant increases in spending on oil depot and plant repairs, providing further justification for price increases up to the allowed 10.2%.

While production statistics remain undisclosed, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reported declines in gasoline and diesel fuel production in 2024. Despite this, a “small increase” in fuel production is expected in 2025, according to Roman Kabakov, Deputy Director of the Department of Oil and Gas Complex of the Ministry of Energy. Simultaneously, Chinese customs data indicates a sharp rise in diesel fuel imports from Russia, raising questions about the surplus thesis.

Even with a full-scale price increase reflecting official inflation, the actual impact on motorists’ expenses may be less drastic than perceived. For example, filling a 50-liter tank with AI-95 gasoline would cost approximately 320 rubles more than current prices.