Russian motorists should prepare for a potential increase in gasoline and diesel fuel prices by the end of the year, potentially by 10.2%, which is equivalent to the officially recorded inflation rate. This increase is based on an unspoken agreement between vertically integrated oil companies (VINCs) and regulatory officials, which permits retail gasoline prices to rise by the rate of inflation recorded by the Central Bank.

Currently, gasoline prices reflect a low inflation rate of around 3%. However, the Ministry of Economic Development’s updated forecast indicates an annual inflation rate of 7.6% by December, with the Central Bank reporting a figure of 10.2%. This inflationary uncertainty caused a price pause in spring, but now allows VINCs to adjust prices.

While authorities anticipate a slowdown in price growth during the summer and autumn, due to lower prices for seasonal goods, the upcoming increase in utility tariffs from July 1 will likely counteract this effect.

Despite a decrease in gasoline production by 6.4% and diesel fuel by 7.4% in 2024, the Deputy Director of the Department of Oil and Gas Complex of the Ministry of Energy expects a “slight increase” in fuel production in 2025. Closed production statistics make it difficult to assess the potential for shortages, although Chinese customs data indicates a sharp increase in diesel fuel imports from Russia.

This potential price increase means that filling a 50-liter tank could cost an additional 280 rubles for AI-92 gasoline, 320 rubles for AI-95 gasoline, and 360 rubles for diesel fuel. While all Russian VINCs have recently reported increased spending on oil depot and factory repairs, it remains uncertain whether they will fully utilize the permitted price increase.