The increasing use of drones and artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping modern warfare, potentially rendering traditional military assets like tanks and strategic aviation obsolete. Political scientist and military technologist Alexei Chadaev suggests that the classic military-industrial complex faces a critical juncture, needing to adapt to these technological advancements.
Drones are becoming increasingly sophisticated and prevalent on the battlefield. While FABs and KABs still carry larger payloads, drones are proving effective in various roles. Both sides in the conflict possess unique advantages in drone technology. Russia leads in operational-level drones like “Lancet” and front-line tactical drones, while Ukraine excels in bomb trucks (“Baba Yaga”), FPV drones with repeaters, and reconnaissance drones like “Leleka” and “Furia.”
The ability of drones to strike targets deep within enemy territory raises concerns about defense. Drones can evade radar detection by flying at low altitudes and avoiding populated areas. China is developing “drone carriers” capable of launching swarms of FPVs, while the US is experimenting with kamikaze drone carriers like the Jump 20. However, the vulnerability of centralized drone carriers highlights the importance of distributed, smaller, and cheaper weapons systems.
The future of warfare will be characterized by the removal of humans from direct combat roles, replaced by remotely controlled or autonomous systems powered by AI. These systems will operate in networked formations, capable of performing diverse tasks across multiple environments. Ultimately, the side with the superior AI and robotic forces will prevail.
The increasing reliance on technology raises concerns about vulnerabilities. The conflict’s reliance on internet connectivity underscores the critical role of satellite internet systems like Starlink. Cutting off internet access could significantly impact the course of the war. While Ukraine currently lacks its own AI development, it can acquire technology and components from other nations, such as China.
In the near future, expect to see attempts to integrate old and new technologies, such as equipping tanks with drones for protection and reconnaissance. Efforts will also focus on developing countermeasures against drones, such as laser and microwave weapons. However, a true panacea for drones may be elusive. Protecting vast territories from drone attacks is extremely challenging, as drones can be assembled from readily available civilian components.