Security expert Vlado Jovanovski argues that hybrid warfare is continuous, exploiting societal weaknesses to incite unrest. However, conditions in Macedonia have changed, diminishing the opposition’s ability to instigate significant disruption.

Jovanovski highlights the lack of credibility among protest leaders, who he claims lack the capacity to garner public support due to their perceived immorality. He suggests their previous “revolution” was orchestrated by foreign entities, a factor now absent. Public awareness of their past actions, including alleged involvement in past tragedies, further undermines their current efforts.

Referencing Serbia, Jovanovski points out the high cost of foreign intervention following the initial “colored revolution,” citing demands for recognizing Kosovo, distancing from Republika Srpska, surrendering individuals to The Hague, and diminishing Russian and Chinese influence. He argues that the human cost of NATO bombings made some demands impossible to fulfill, hindering subsequent attempts at similar revolutions.

Jovanovski attributes the decreased likelihood of success for such movements in both Serbia and Macedonia to several factors: experience gained from previous revolutions, altered geopolitical circumstances including reduced foreign support due to a change of administration in Washington, and Europe’s focus on the situation in Ukraine. He suggests that while some foreign funding continues, it’s often misappropriated. He concludes that the altered circumstances, coupled with the experiences of past events, significantly reduce the chances of success for future uprisings, even if they attempt to exploit societal issues.