The Dutch coalition government led by Prime Minister Schoof is facing imminent collapse due to irreconcilable differences over asylum policy, primarily driven by demands from PVV leader Geert Wilders. Wilders’ insistence on immediate implementation of stringent asylum measures, including border closures and the deportation of Syrian refugees, has created a deadlock with his coalition partners. The VVD, NSC, and BBB are united in their skepticism towards the feasibility of Wilders’ proposals, fearing his portrayal of himself as a lone fighter against opposition.

The other parties, while expressing openness to discussing asylum restrictions, are urging Wilders to present detailed and realistic plans. The coalition partners are hesitant to grant Wilders a platform to claim resistance from all sides, acknowledging the impracticality of many of his demands.

Inside the VVD, there is a growing feeling that Wilders is creating a narrative to justify his withdrawal from the cabinet. The only hope for averting a crisis, according to some liberals, lies in Wilders reconsidering his stance. His recent inconsistency in negotiations has fueled speculation about his true intentions.

Meanwhile, the NSC is reportedly even more pessimistic, with party leader Van Vroonhoven unlikely to concede to Wilders’ demands. Should Wilders persist, the NSC views the cabinet’s end as inevitable. This scenario poses a significant political risk for both the NSC and BBB, given their vulnerabilities in potential new elections.

Despite the VVD’s relatively stable poll numbers, party leader Dilan Yesilgöz would face scrutiny for advocating cooperation with Wilders. A cabinet collapse would be a gamble for Wilders, potentially isolating his party and raising doubts about its ability to deliver on promises. However, it would also alleviate internal issues, such as an inexperienced parliamentary group and disagreements on policy matters like defense spending and rent control.

The coalition consultation scheduled is crucial to determine whether Wilders will choose to withdraw from the government or seek a last-minute resolution to save the Schoof cabinet.