The Nieuw Sociaal Contract (NSC) party is facing a potentially fatal crisis following the collapse of the Dutch coalition government. The party’s future is uncertain, with polls suggesting a significant loss of support and questions surrounding its leadership and direction.

The withdrawal of Geert Wilders’ PVV party from the coalition has triggered a political earthquake, leaving the NSC in a precarious position. NSC leader Nicolien van Vroonhoven expressed her disappointment and disbelief at Wilders’ decision, stating that she had counted on his “goodwill” to reach an agreement.

The departure of founder and former leader Pieter Omtzigt a month and a half ago has further weakened the NSC. Voter research indicates that a significant portion of those who voted for the party in 2023 now believe it should be dissolved. Many voters chose the NSC primarily because of Omtzigt’s reputation as an “honest politician” and his promise of “good governance.”

The NSC’s involvement in bringing the PVV into government for the first time has alienated some of its support base, particularly those with left-wing backgrounds. The promised good governance has also failed to materialize, with frequent clashes among coalition partners.

The party has struggled to achieve substantial policy results, and key initiatives are likely to be abandoned following the cabinet’s collapse. Potential successors to Omtzigt have not resonated with voters.

Van Vroonhoven initially floated the idea of a restart of the current cabinet without the PVV, but this proposal appears unlikely to gain traction. With coalition partner VVD pushing for new elections, the NSC faces the prospect of a potentially devastating outcome.

The party acknowledges the need to obtain a “new mandate” from voters, but the upcoming elections could prove fatal unless a significant shift in public opinion occurs. The possibility of Pieter Omtzigt’s return to politics remains a lingering question, as he has not ruled out a future comeback.