The fall of the Dutch government introduces significant uncertainty regarding the future of key policy initiatives. With a new government not expected until late this year, only uncontroversial issues will be addressed by parliament in the interim.

Caretaker Prime Minister Dick Schoof expressed hope that crucial topics such as nitrogen pollution, asylum, and the housing crisis would remain under consideration. However, the decision ultimately rests with the Members of Parliament (MPs). The previous coalition parties are no longer obligated to adhere to party lines, adding further complexity to the situation.

The debate on the cabinet’s failure will provide greater clarity, particularly regarding pending asylum legislation. Two bills concerning asylum, one to eliminate permanent residency permits and another to establish a two-tier refugee classification system, are scheduled for a vote before the summer recess. The resignation of the responsible minister further complicates the passage of these proposals, especially given the deep divisions within parliament.

The nitrogen crisis also faces potential delays. While PVV farm minister Femke Wiersma had developed a limited set of new measures to be elaborated on in the fall, support from opposition parties is uncertain, as some advocate for more extensive action than the outgoing administration intended.

Conversely, an increase in defense spending and support for Ukraine are expected to continue unaffected. The caretaker cabinet can rely on the support of the GroenLinks-PvdA alliance on these matters. The outgoing cabinet is also authorized to vote in favor of raising the NATO norm at the upcoming summit in The Hague.

Regarding housing, caretaker housing minister Mona Keijzer plans to proceed with cutting red tape and boosting construction. However, her proposal to ease the impact of last July’s expansion of rent controls will likely be blocked due to opposition from a majority of MPs who favor the stricter rules.

Finally, plans to establish a constitutional court and reform the voting system, including the introduction of local representation, are now unlikely to proceed.