The collapse of coalition talks in the Netherlands was triggered by Geert Wilders’ withdrawal, leaving other party leaders stunned and reshaping the political landscape. The decision, made after Wilders perceived a lack of support for his proposals, has significant implications for the involved parties, particularly BBB and NSC, and raises questions about Wilders’ future role in Dutch politics.

Politicians across the spectrum have reacted sharply to Wilders’ move, with many accusing him of strategic positioning ahead of upcoming elections. Even parties on the right, including Thierry Baudet’s Forum for Democracy, criticized Wilders, possibly seeking to attract disillusioned PVV voters.

The events unfolded rapidly, beginning with tension building over the weekend. Wilders’ visit to Budapest and his subsequent demands on social media heightened expectations. The other coalition parties (VVD, NSC, and BBB) presented a united front, urging Wilders to provide detailed proposals. However, Wilders quickly expressed pessimism, and behind the scenes, confidence in a positive outcome waned.

On Tuesday morning, the leaders of the coalition parties approached Wilders with messages suggesting they would not agree to his plans. Wilders, having monitored their statements, preemptively announced his withdrawal from the negotiations.

This outcome represents a setback for the VVD, whose leader, Dilan Yesilgöz, had pursued cooperation with Wilders in hopes of tightening asylum policy. The failure to achieve any policy gains and the collapse of the cabinet are considered painful for Yesilgöz.

Analysts suggest that Wilders’ future in The Hague hinges on the results of the upcoming elections. While he is an experienced campaigner, his path to becoming Prime Minister appears challenging given current polling data and the reluctance of other parties, such as the CDA, to work with him.

The ability to mobilize his supporters will be crucial for Wilders. The perception that he could realistically attain power played a significant role in his previous electoral success, but future prospects may be affected, if voters believe that Wilders can no longer reach a leading position in the Dutch government.