Despite recent geopolitical events and economic predictions, the economy and financial markets have shown resilience. Stock markets have adapted to political events, and the impact of these events has been minimal compared to past crises.

The AEX index of the Amsterdam stock exchange closed at the same level as when Trump took office, despite fluctuations. Geopolitical events, such as attacks on Iran, caused only temporary dips. Experts advise investors to focus on structural consequences for corporate profits and the economy rather than being stressed by political events.

While the Dow Jones in the US has seen a slight correction after significant gains, the Nasdaq 100 reached a new record high. Market volatility, as measured by the VIX index, remains normal. The markets seem to believe that Trump will moderate his actions, leading to market recovery after initial shocks.

However, Dutch investors with holdings in American stocks have experienced losses due to the falling dollar exchange rate. The dollar’s decline is attributed to declining confidence in the currency due to the rising budget deficit, despite Trump’s efforts to weaken the dollar to boost American competitiveness.

Oil and gas prices have decreased despite Middle East tensions and sanctions against Russia. The markets quickly assess the impact of military actions on the oil and gas market, and prices remain stable as long as installations and transport routes are unaffected.

Despite increasing government deficits, central banks have managed to keep interest rates from rising excessively by purchasing government bonds. Interest rates on American government bonds have even fallen since January, despite a credit rating downgrade.

The trade war’s expected recession has not materialized. While growth expectations have been reduced slightly, tariffs have been suspended through negotiations. Economies have shown resilience despite deglobalization trends, and a recession is not foreseen for most major economies.

Falling oil prices and a weaker dollar benefit European and Asian companies. The rise of artificial intelligence may lead to productivity gains and efficiency improvements, contributing to structural economic development.