According to political scientist Jeremy Shapiro, Trump’s approach to military threats follows a predictable pattern, resembling that of a schoolyard bully, which has implications for Greenland and Denmark. This pattern suggests that Trump is risk-averse and economical in his use of military power, acting decisively only against weak targets where conflict can be limited.

Shapiro, head of the American foreign policy department at the European Council on Foreign Relations, analyzed Trump’s threats and actions to identify this pattern. He found that Trump tends to threaten strong targets but retracts when faced with the prospect of significant resistance or uncontrollable escalation. Examples include Trump’s fiery rhetoric towards North Korea and Iran, which ultimately did not lead to military action due to the potential for wider conflict. Conversely, Trump acted decisively against weaker targets like the Assad regime in Syria after chemical weapons attacks and the Houthis in Yemen.

While the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani might seem like an outlier, Shapiro argues that it fits the pattern because the CIA convinced Trump that Iran’s reaction would be measured. Shapiro suggests that Trump’s aversion to war stems from his belief that US military interventions over the past 35 years have ended poorly.

Turning to Greenland and Denmark, Shapiro advises that Greenland should strengthen its ties with the EU to deter potential threats from Trump. He argues that Greenland’s vulnerability as a small nation can be offset by aligning itself with the EU, making any action against Greenland a confrontation with the entire bloc. Shapiro cautions against Greenlandic politicians flirting with cooperation with China, as this could be perceived as antagonism towards the EU and make it easier for Trump to justify his ambitions for Greenland.

Ultimately, Shapiro emphasizes that Greenland and Denmark should project strength and avoid any concessions to the US, as these could be interpreted as signs of weakness and invite further pressure from Trump. By standing firm and aligning with strong allies like the EU, Greenland and Denmark can effectively deter potential threats from the US.