The number of young people in Denmark aged 15 to 24 who are neither employed nor enrolled in education has risen to almost 45,000, according to a new analysis. This increase represents a setback to the 2017 parliamentary agreement that aimed to halve the proportion of young people not ready for education and work after primary school by 2030.

Despite a booming labor market, the number of young people without jobs or education has increased by 1,800 in a single year. This means that 6.6 percent of young people are not in education or employment, moving further away from the target of 3.5 percent.

The increase is paradoxical because the labor market has been running at full speed with high employment rates. Employment has increased for 20 consecutive months, breaking a record for the 47th time in April. There has been a small increase of 0.1 percentage points in employment among young people with primary school as their highest education, but it has not been sufficient to offset the overall trend.

A decline of 0.2 percentage points has been observed in the number of people starting upper secondary or higher education, as well as in the number of people currently in education. The problems are particularly acute among 16 to 19-year-olds.

The decline in education participation confirms a trend where approximately one in six students who left ninth grade in 2023 are not expected to obtain upper secondary education eight years after completing primary school. In some municipalities, this figure could be as high as one in three young men by 2031.

The current trend also moves away from the political objectives set in the 2017 agreement, which aimed to ensure that a maximum of ten percent of a youth cohort would be without education eight years after completing primary school. Only six municipalities are expected to meet that target in 2031.

Education has become more important in today’s labor market, making it more difficult for those without qualifications to succeed. While practical experience in unskilled jobs can be valuable, it needs to be followed by education to ensure job security, lower unemployment, and higher wages.

The director of the Labour Movement’s Economic Council (AE), Lars Andersen, states that Denmark faces a fundamental problem regarding education.