An American politics expert, Derek Beach, believes the EU is in a strong position regarding trade war threats from Donald Trump, suggesting that Trump’s unpredictability and lack of domestic support undermine his position. Beach, a professor at Aarhus University, recently visited the European Commission in Brussels and shared his insights on the matter.

Trump’s history of reversing decisions on tariffs indicates that the EU can afford to be patient, according to Beach. Trump’s pattern of unilaterally adjusting tariffs and deadlines, often without consulting Congress, suggests these threats are not as solid as they appear.

Beach emphasizes that Trump’s own party does not fully support his trade war policies. The recent budget agreement negotiations revealed skepticism within the Republican party about the potential revenue from Trump’s tariffs, exposing his domestic weakness on this issue.

China’s approach of waiting for Trump to change his mind has proven effective, and Beach suggests the EU can adopt a similar strategy. The expert argues that China realized Trump’s tariff decisions were based on personal whims, allowing them to wait for him to alter course.

Beach highlights the inconsistencies and questionable justifications behind Trump’s tariff threats. Trump’s complaints about VAT and alleged currency manipulation by the EU are dismissed as “gibberish” and difficult to address through negotiation.

Trump’s accusations that the EU is “stealing” from the US due to a trade deficit are also questioned, with Beach pointing out discrepancies in the figures cited by Trump. Beach says that VAT rates are set by individual member states and that the EU has no control over the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.

Beach questions the overall purpose of Trump’s trade war tactics, noting his conflicting demands and ever-changing positions. Beach concludes that the EU is in a challenging situation, as it is difficult to determine what Trump truly wants to achieve through these trade negotiations.