The votes of Dutch citizens living abroad could be decisive in determining which party emerges as the largest in the current elections. With D66 and the PVV in a close race, the record number of registered foreign voters, totaling 136,272, representing approximately two parliamentary seats, could tip the balance.

The counting of these postal votes, processed by the designated office in The Hague, is expected to take up to five days after the elections. The narrow margins between D66 and the PVV amplify the potential impact of the foreign vote.

In the 2023 parliamentary elections, over 107,000 voters registered from abroad, with more than 69,000 actually casting their vote. D66 received more than seven thousand votes (10.5 percent) from abroad, while the PVV received 4,380 votes (6.3 percent).

While it is speculative, current trends suggest D66 is growing and the PVV is shrinking. However, foreign voters had to register by October 1, before D66 leader Rob Jetten’s rise in popularity. A poll of twelve thousand Dutch voters abroad showed GroenLinks-PvdA as the largest party (20.7 percent), followed by the PVV (18.5 percent) and D66 (17.2 percent), but the representativeness of this poll is uncertain.